The Data Group of Zaragoza en Común elaborated surveys for the next Local Elections in the city of Zaragoza. The sample is made of 380 telephone interviews with quotes of age, gender and sort of neighborhood according to historical electoral behaviour.
We have forecasted a participation of the 65% considering that this elections are framed in a political change context, where the participation is bigger.
According to the vote intention data and considering the forecasted participation, the vote memory, the floating vote sympathies and the votes transference we have done the follwing forecast of votes and Councillors elected. (1)
With this forecast done, it is neccesary to mention that there is a draw between PP and Zaragoza en Común, meaning that any of them can be the most voted party next May 24th.
If we take into considerationthe data from the European Elections, Partido Popular will be able to fidelizate 53.8% of its voters, losing 18.5% in favour of Ciudadanos and having a 25% that does not know who to give the vote or saying not voting to any party. Counting on the fact that they started with a 24% in the European Elections, the Ciudadanos “Effect” can be harmful to a party in its worst moment in a city that is not very favourable for the Partido Popular.
Zaragoza en Común achieves to fidelizate a bit more of the 50% of the voters of IU and Podemos in the European Elections, having a 25% of floating voters, a 5% non voting or voting blank and around a 14% of votes transferred to PSOE. However, this lose will be less than the votes won from PSOE and of people who did not vote in the European Elections.
PSOE has a hughe percentage of floating vote (32%) and if we add to it those saying are not going to vote we find that 38% of the voters of PSOE in the European Elections are not going to vote or they still do not know who to give the vote. If we add as well to this high rate of floating vote a 10% escape of votes towards Zaragoza en Común, we have a PSOE with the lowest fidelization rate of vote, where only 42% of the people that voted them in the European Elections say the would vote again in the Local Elections. The high rate of floating vote for the PSOE has made impossible to forecast the estimation of vote to this party.
Finally, Ciudadanos has proved to be an option to be taken into account for the next election because breaks into the panorama with an estimation of vote of the 17.5% due to the support received of the former voters of UPyD and PP.
The tightness of the results between the two main parties in terms of estimation of vote, Zaragoza en Común and Partido Popular, makes the campaign crucial to determinate the preferred option of the citizenry.
PP is trying to movilizate its electoral bases to avoid the abstention or to convince them so as not to vote Ciudadanos. Zaragoza en Común will try to make the union of people and parties supporting this option to make not only adding but multiplying, generating a wave of ilusion and hope in a chage made by the citizenry. If it is achieved, there is no doubt that it will not only be the first party next May 24th but would achieve to build a political project so the neighbors of Zaragoza manage and transform the city.
Jaime Minguijón Pablo and Javier Gimeno Martínez. Sociologists.